Intelligence Sources
What Goes Into the Score
Cade Market aggregates signals from structured data repositories, open-source intelligence, and expert forecasting networks. Each source category carries calibration weights that reflect historical accuracy per event type.
Source Categories
Four Layers of Intelligence Input
The scoring engine draws on four source categories. Not all categories carry the same weight on every event type. Calibration history determines contribution per category.
Structured Data
Government and Institutional Data
Legislative voting records, budget publications, trade statistics, central bank communications, and electoral commission data. Structured sources are parsed and scored against event definitions with high precision.
OSINT
Open-Source Intelligence
News wire services, regional press, social listening signals, and public research publications. OSINT signals are weighted by publication type, regional relevance, and historical reliability on similar event categories.
Economic Indicators
Quantitative Economic Signals
Currency volatility, credit default swap spreads, equity market reactions to political events, and macroeconomic release data. Economic signals calibrate well against political stability and policy event categories.
Expert Networks
Structured Expert Forecasting
Probability estimates from regional specialists and structured forecasting panel members. Expert signals are scored against historical calibration to determine contribution weight per event type and region.
Data Pipeline
From Source Signal to Probability Score
Sources are ingested, classified, weighted, and fed into the Bayesian scoring engine. The pipeline runs continuously, updating scores as new signals arrive.
Quality Controls
Source Integrity and Calibration
Sources are not treated as equally reliable. The calibration layer applies historical accuracy weights so that sources with poor predictive records on a given event type contribute proportionally less.
Historical Accuracy Scoring
Each source category's weight is derived from its historical Brier score on similar resolved events. Accuracy degrades weight; reliability increases it.
Category-Specific Weights
A source that calibrates well on economic policy events may not calibrate well on civil unrest. Weights are assigned per source category and per event type, not globally.
Source Attribution Transparency
Analysts see which source categories contributed to a score and by how much. This attribution is visible in the dashboard and in API response payloads.
Divergence Flagging
When source categories diverge significantly, the score carries a wider confidence interval and a divergence flag. Analysts see when sources disagree, not just the aggregate.
See Source Attribution in the Dashboard
Request access to review source contribution breakdowns for live tracked events in your region or sector of interest.