Platform
How the Engine Works
Cade Market translates raw intelligence into calibrated probability scores. Every number has a source trace and a confidence interval.
Brazil Presidential Transition
P(Change in governing coalition within 90 days)
Signal contributors
Scoring Mechanism
Bayesian Aggregation Across Weighted Sources
The scoring engine updates probability estimates continuously as new source signals arrive, applying calibration weights based on historical accuracy per event category.
Calibration Weights
Each source category carries a historical accuracy weight per event type. Sources that have predicted poorly on similar events contribute less to the aggregate score.
Continuous Updating
Scores update when new intelligence signals arrive. The prior distribution shifts with each observation, and confidence intervals narrow as more signals converge.
Brier Score Tracking
Resolution tracking compares predicted probabilities against actual outcomes. Brier scores accumulate over time to surface systematic over- or under-confidence by event category.
Confidence Intervals
Every probability score ships with a quantified uncertainty range. A 67% score at CI 61-73% is a different instrument than 67% at CI 44-89%.
Source Attribution
Every Score Has a Source Trace
Analysts can see exactly which source categories moved a probability and by how much. Scores are never black-box outputs.
Coverage
Event Categories
Cade Market covers political transitions, economic policy events, security incidents, and regulatory shifts across a growing set of countries and jurisdictions.
Political Transitions
Government formation, coalition shifts, leadership succession, and electoral outcomes across parliamentary and executive systems.
Economic Policy Events
Central bank decisions, fiscal policy shifts, trade agreement outcomes, and currency intervention probability across emerging and developed markets.
Security Incidents
Armed conflict escalation, civil unrest probability, and cross-border security event forecasting for corporate security functions.
Regulatory Shifts
Sector-specific regulatory change probability, sanctions event likelihood, and compliance-relevant policy announcements in key jurisdictions.
Access
Built for Analysts, Not Newsrooms
Cade Market delivers structured probability data through a clean interface and a JSON API. Scores are exportable, versioned, and auditable.
Event Dashboard
Browse and filter tracked events by country, category, and time horizon. Each event displays its current probability, CI, source attribution, and score history.
JSON API
Pull current and historical probability scores into your own models. The API returns structured JSON with score, CI bounds, source weights, and update timestamps.
Score Alerts
Set threshold alerts on any tracked event. Receive notification when a probability crosses a defined threshold or when CI bounds shift materially.
Export and Audit Trail
Every score is versioned with a timestamp and source snapshot. Export to CSV or JSON for model input, compliance records, or post-event analysis.
See the Engine in Action
Request a walkthrough of the probability dashboard and API with live event data from current tracked regions.