Calibrated probability scores for political and economic events
Cade Market scores near-term events from weighted open-source intelligence and shows which sources moved each reading, so an analyst can defend the number.
From raw intelligence to defensible probability
Every score reflects a specific event, a specific timeframe, and the sources that contributed to the estimate.
Ingest weighted sources
Cade Market continuously processes structured intelligence from government datasets, research publications, and vetted open-source channels. Each source carries a calibration weight by event category.
Score via Bayesian updating
New signals shift the probability reading incrementally. The engine records which source contributed each change, so the score history is a ledger, not a black box.
Deliver score plus attribution
Analysts receive the current probability, confidence interval, and a ranked source breakdown. The number has a chain of custody an analyst can present to a review board.
Three properties that make a score usable
Most probability tools optimize for volume. Cade Market optimizes for the three properties a risk analyst actually needs to justify an estimate.
Calibrated confidence
Scores include Brier-tracked calibration history. When the engine says 70%, it has resolved near that rate on comparable events.
Source attribution
Every reading shows which intelligence sources drove the current estimate and by how much. The analyst can audit the derivation, not just accept the output.
Near-term focus
Scores cover events with defined resolution windows of 7 to 90 days. Tight horizons produce measurable accuracy records and faster calibration feedback.
What an analyst sees
Each event card shows the score, confidence interval, delta since the last session, and the contributing sources ranked by weight.
Sample event
Governing coalition retains majority in parliamentary confidence vote
58-76% confidence interval
Source attribution
Built for analysts who need to defend the number
Cade Market was designed for the analyst who reads an assessment to a review board or a leadership team - not for passive intelligence consumption.
Risk managers and security teams
Supply chain disruption, political stability in operating regions, regulatory shift. Cade Market converts exposure questions into probability estimates with documented source chains.
Portfolio analysts and economists
Geopolitical events with asymmetric impact require probability inputs. Cade Market provides calibrated near-term scores that can enter a risk model as documented assumptions.
Policy analysts and researchers
Academic and policy contexts require transparent methodology. Each Cade Market score comes with source breakdown and calibration record, not just a point estimate.
Open-source intelligence, structured for scoring
Cade Market ingests from four source categories, each weighted by historical calibration performance on event type.
Government and parliamentary records
Official government databases, parliamentary proceedings, legislative records, and public administrative filings. High signal-to-noise for institutional event types.
Research publications and policy institutes
Peer-reviewed journals, think-tank output, and policy institute assessments. Weighted by track record on the specific event category being scored.
Wire feeds and financial data
Structured wire feed ingestion and financial market signals. Used to capture short-horizon shifts that primary sources resolve more slowly.
Multilateral and treaty bodies
UN, IMF, WTO, and regional body documentation and resolutions. High credibility sources for regulatory and geopolitical stability event types.
Start with a research consultation
Tell us the event types and regions you track. We will scope a coverage set and walk through the source methodology specific to your use case.